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Depending on who you ask, the Saffir Simpson hurricane scale, used to rate hurricanes for decades, may be put out to pasture in 2009. Developed by enginner Herbert Saffir and then NHC Director Robert Simpson in the late 60's, the scale rates hurricanes from Category 1 to 5. It does this by using the wind speed of the hurricane, not flooding or storm surge potential.
A perfect example of why the scale should be changed came this year when Ike slammed into Texas. Ike made landfall as a Cat. 2 hurricane, with residents and officials expecting moderate hurricane damage. But Ike's storm surge was over 15', so destruction was catatrophic and widespread along the Texas coastline. Today they are still cleaning up the debris, and some residents are still waiting for FEMA trailers. And livinig in tents while they wait.
Gene Hafele, meteorologist-in-charge of the Houston/Galveston office of the National Weather Service is proposing the modification. "Bad decisions were made during Ike by both citizens and officials, based on the notion that Ike was a Category 2 storm and a feeling that 'I have been through a lot worse.' It is hard to convince people that they could face certain death when they see that a storm is not even considered to be a major hurricane."
A cat. 2 hurricane like Frances in 2004 caused a 5-8' storm surge. The same hurricane in Galvaston caused 15-18' surge. Geography is the main reason, and it works for us in Florida. Not so along the Gulf Coast. It's time to change the scale to reflect potnetial damage.
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The Geminid Meteor shower takes place this week, and peaks on the weekend. Best viewing is after 10PM and look toward the East. Usually a good shower with plenty of meteors, this year the show will be washed out a little from the bright Full Moon on Friday. With the Full Moon, you should see one meteor every few mintues. Good luck.
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This month the Full Moon arrives on Friday night. Also known as the Cold Moon and the Long Night Moon, it will also be at perigee at 5PM EST, at a distance of 221,560 miles. from Earth. This will make this Moon the biggest and brightest since 1993. Very high tides can be expected from this Full Moon. The Moon will rise in the East at 5:30PM.
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Latest radar out of the southeast show a vigorous front working across MS and AL. Computer models continue to develop a surface low in the northern Gulf on Thursday, tracking it north and moving it rapidly into the Carolinas on Friday. Usually this would be a situation where severe weather could develop, but the upper support quickly exits Florida on Thursday, and we're left with a rapidly decaying boundary with little upper support. So although rain is a good bet later Thursday, the threat for severe weather is diminishing by the hour. But it's worth watching this week, considering a slightly stronger front could change the weather situation.
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Look toward the southwest in the early evening, and you can see Jupiter, Venus and the crescent Moon half way up in the sky. These planets are very bright, with Jupiter slightly above Venus in the sky. They will slowly be getting farther apart the next few weeks, so catch them soon.
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It's time to celebrate. We are at the end of the 2008 Hurricane Season, one of the busiest on record. We end the year with 16 named storm, 8 of which became hurricanes, and incredibly 5 becoming major hurricanes. The season tied as the fourth most active hurricane season on record. We saw 6 consecutive stoms make a US landfall. Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gustav, Hanna and Ike all hit the US at some point in their track.
Another wierd stat. This is the first time a major hurricane has formed in 5 consecutive months. It started with Bertha in July and ended with Paloma in November. Paloma was also the second strongest November hurricane on record with winds at 145mph. Lenny in 1999 is first with 155mph winds.
Fay was the most notable storm for Florida. This August storm made 4 landfalls as it criss crossed the state, and every coastal community had a watch or warning at some point.It also left over 20" of rain in parts of the Treasure Coast, with massive flooding. The Lake Okeecobee level rose 4' from Fay's rains!
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Rainfall reports out of the Melbourne area are stunning. Over 2' of rain has fallen, and more is on the way. This will likely go down as the biggest rain event ever to hit the Cape. But it could set another record. Never has a storm made 4 separate landfalls in Florida. There storms have made 3 landfalls. They are the unnamed 1878 hurricane, Easy in 1950, and the famous Donna in 1960.
If Fay tracks into the Gulf later this week and hits the Panhandle, which is quite possible, it would be the only storm with four landfalls. it first hit Key West early this week, then Marco Island south of Naples, likely Daytona on Thursday, then a fourth...
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Fay made it through Hispaniola slightly weaker, but latest satellite imagery suggests this storm is ready to gain strength quickly. The official NHC forecast keeps Fay as a TS along the Cuban coast, but don't be surprised to see Fay intensify quickly to hurricane strength. The highest heat content in the Atlantic is ahead of Fay, and wind shear is low. Only land interaction will keep Fay at bay. And my guess is that won't last long.
I'm reminded of Hurricane Irene in 1999. Remember her? This late October storm left 20" of rain in Boynton Beach, but also made for a scary Friday night for us, as winds gusty to over 80 mph over the Lake. The coastal wind speeds were close behind. More notable was the fact the track had Irene headed to Tampa, but she ended up over the Lake that night. A lesson should be learned here. Watch the cone. We're in the cone. Several great computer models have an Irene tracking through our area.
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as I predicted last night we would have TS Fay today. With a low level center over land but a well protected center deviod of dry air, Fay should continue as a strong tropical storm on the weekend. don't be suprised to see Fay intensify some more. Water temperatures in the mid to high 80's lay ahead of the system along the south coast of Cuba. One the oppsite side of things, Fay will encounter high terrian the next 24 hours, with mountian peaks rising thousands of feet.
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The tropical wave over the Leeward Islands is becoming better organized tonight. Although the convection has diminished this evening, impressive outflow is occurring, and another peak in the convective cycle should happen overnight. hurricane hunters have been flying through the system, and we all expect to see a depression overnight or Friday. Water temperatures are in the low to mid 80's the next couple of days, and wind shear remains at around 10mph, which should not hinder strengthening. Look for TS Fay in the next 24 hours.
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Late this afternoon Bertha set a record by becoming the longest lasting July storm on record. It beats a record that has stood since 1916, when Storm #2 lasted for 12.25 days. It has been a busy July in the tropics, with well developed waves coming off the coast of
Africa. Bertha formed quickly near the Cape Verde Is. almost two weeks ago, and at one point was a major hurricane. This was unusual too since it is early in the hurricane season.
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A great final day for the Ride. More sunny weather, but temperatures soared into the low 90's. The wind can sometimes be a problem on the last day, but this year it was fine. I was joined by Mo Foster of KOOL 105.5 again, and Stan Kilbas the owner of Wheels of Wellington. He donates the bike that we auction off on the last day.
We left CityPlace at 1pm. A first on the Ride; Mo got a flat tire in Lake Worth, almost in front of the Lake Worth Bike Shop. We walked in and they repaired it in 5 minutes. The total distance is about 30 miles to Boca, and it took about 21/2 hours.
A good crowd greeted us at Mizner Park, and our main sponsor, Ansca Homes, made a $5000. donation in the 5pm newscast. Eric Scherr, the GM of Ansca Homes made the donation and thanked the Red Cross. We started the bike bidding at $500., and we eventually got a $2000. bid.
At 5:30pm Steve Bayer, a disaster specialist with the Red Cross, came on to talk about hurricane preparedness. Stan gave a detailed description of the bike, and we promoted the annual hurricane guide.
At 6pm Joe Hansen showed off the new pet shelter, and we got the bike bid up to $2750. The bid was from Mark Ryska of Vero Beach. At the last minute we got an additional bid of $7250., making the final donation total of $10000. We have a secret bidder who calls in at the last minute each year. I know who they are but I'm sworn to secrecy.
Thanks to everyone who helped with the Ride this year. Bernedette O'Grady and Mo Foster deserve a special thanks for the organization and promotion of the Ride. And Bob Leak for racing up and down the coast shooting all the video you see during the day. And the returning secret bike bidder. Let's hope he returns next year...
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Another sunny hot and dry day to bike down the coast. Lazy Loggerhead Cafe at Carlin Park was our first stop at Noon, and owners Jenn and Brian Wilson gave $1000. donation. Breakfest and lunch at the Loggerhead are a must. Try the blackened dolphin sandwich. My favorite. I've been going there for years. Linda Olsen of the Red Cross came on at 12:45 to talk about CPR and EAD training.
We headed out at 1pm down A1A to West Palm Beach. I was joined by Mo Foster of KOOL 105.5, and Greg and Ron. Greg runs the Salvation Army for this area and comes along every year. Mo wanted to be part of the Ride last year, so we formed a partnership with radio and tv. It works very well to get the Red Cross word out, and reach more residents. Mo and Sally talk up the Ride during the week, and he joins me in Palm Beach County. By 3pm we were at WPB, and travelled back to the Garens Mall for the 5pm broadcasts.
The Gardens Mall gave a $5000. check, and local stores like California Pizza Kitchen brought out food for the volunteers. Michelle Jacobs presented the check to Michael Lampert, new board chair for the local chapter. Mary Blakeney and I work closely together during hurricane season, and she came on to talk about getting a hurricane plan.
I don't keep a taly of donations brought in, but leave it to the Red Cross. I have a feeling this will be a record year, especially if the bike auction goes well on Friday. Remember there is a Steve's Ride after party at Blue Martini between 6-9pm. Half price drinks and some food items.
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A great mid week ride down US 1 in Martin County. The weather was sunny all day with temperatures in the high 80's. We started around 11am at the Roosevelt Bridge, and worked out way to Toyota of Stuart by Noon. I was joined by the Toyota Bike Team, and they came on air at Noon. We received a check from Jorn Pierson of Toyota of Stuart, a big supporter of the Red Cross. Rob Shelt also came on talked about hurricane preparation. And the beautiful Lindsey Berman, the recently crowned Ms. US Florida Continental dropped by to cheer us on.
At 1pm we set off to Hobe Sound and Harry and the Natives. Harry is away, but his wife Paula and morhter Pauline donated $1000. once again. We also had a $500. from Steinger, Iscoe and Green, and checks from Hobe Soiunds Chamber and GFWC Hobe Sound Women's Club. Total ride distance was about 20 miles.
On to Palm Beach County...
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Another great day on the road, with a nice reception at Blue Water Beach Grill on the Ft. Pierce Inlet, then the bike ride down A1A to avoid construction on US1. Blue Water made a $1000. donation to the Red Cross. We ended the day at Norris Ribs in Port St. Lucie. They also made a nice donation and were great hosts for the evening. Total distance was about 20 miles. Thanks to St. Lucie County Sherrif's Dept. for escort today. Indian River and St. Lucie are always great hosts and this year was no exception. On to Martin County.
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