WPTV.com Blogs

Welcome to WPTV.com Blogs Sign in | Join | Help
in
Home Blogs

Steve Weagle's Weather and Astronomy Blog

Famous Saffir Simpson Hurricane Scale on the way out?

 

Depending on who you ask, the Saffir Simpson hurricane scale, used to rate hurricanes for decades, may be put out to pasture in 2009. Developed by enginner Herbert Saffir and then NHC Director Robert Simpson in the late 60's, the scale rates hurricanes from Category 1 to 5. It does this by using the wind speed of the hurricane, not flooding or storm surge potential.

A perfect example of why the scale should be changed came this year when Ike slammed into Texas. Ike made landfall as a Cat. 2 hurricane, with residents and officials expecting moderate hurricane damage. But Ike's storm surge was over 15', so destruction was catatrophic and widespread along the Texas coastline. Today they are still cleaning up the debris, and some residents are still waiting for FEMA trailers. And livinig in tents while they wait.

Gene Hafele, meteorologist-in-charge of the Houston/Galveston office of the National Weather Service is proposing the modification. "Bad decisions were made during Ike by both citizens and officials, based on the notion that Ike was a Category 2 storm and a feeling that 'I have been through a lot worse.' It is hard to convince people that they could face certain death when they see that a storm is not even considered to be a major hurricane."

A cat. 2 hurricane like Frances in 2004 caused a 5-8' storm surge. The same hurricane in Galvaston caused 15-18' surge. Geography is the main reason, and it works for us in Florida. Not so along the Gulf Coast. It's time to change the scale to reflect potnetial damage.

Published Thursday, December 11, 2008 9:03 PM by sweagle

Comments

 

dfarside18 said:

I think this all depends on what you are trying to measure.  The scale as is now seems to want to measure wind speed and not overall relative damage and as such, it is good for what it does.  

If you also want to have a measure for relative damage, then you could add a second new metric based on storm surge height,  There would (similar to the wind speed scale) be five different heights ranging from "we barely saw it" to "huge wall of water" (call them whatever you like).

Now form a matrix on a sheet of graph paper (or spreadsheet) with one of these (say the wind speed) on the x-axis going up from 1 to 5 from left-to-right, the other (surge height) on the y-axis going up from 1 to 5 from the bottom-up.  

The 25 intersecting boxes would be the results of each corresponding wind speed matched with each corresponding surge height.  In each of those 25 boxes would have a value representing the relative damage from a storm with those two characteristics shown as minimal, moderate, major, extensive, or catastrophic.  You might have more different values then just five if you like.  But I think you get the picture now.  

Measure each factor with it's own metric, then overlay with the others to form a matrix yielding the overall result in a way that is simple to see and understand.

Good Luck
December 19, 2008 2:29 AM
 

» Cyclone Tracy Standards-based assessment said:

May 6, 2009 5:11 PM
 

» Hurricane Edith (1971) Thomas Mitchell Campbell said:

May 12, 2009 7:07 PM
 

Meteorological history of Hurricane Ivan at Kidsongs said:

July 8, 2009 12:55 PM
Anonymous comments are disabled

This Blog

Post Calendar

<December 2008>
SuMoTuWeThFrSa
30123456
78910111213
14151617181920
21222324252627
28293031123
45678910

Syndication

Inergize Digital Media This site powered by Inergize Digital Media. The views expressed here do not necessarily reflect the views of this station.